How can you tell if your campaign truly worked? Read this post on Cardinal Path’s blog that I wrote to learn about how Uplift Modeling can help you.
You’ve just finished running a new advertising campaign. Now you want to know the answer to your obvious and most pressing question: did it work? That is, did the campaign create uplift, causing more customers to purchase your product than would have without the campaign?
Naïve and incorrect approach
The conversion rate after receiving the offer was 7%, and so you conclude that 7% of customers bought your product because they saw the ad.
This is incorrect. What if those same customers were going to purchase your product anyways? Without comparing the conversion rate of those who saw the ad to those that didn’t, you aren’t getting a true measure of how much ‘lift’ your campaign actually caused.
In other words, you should not use the approach outlined above.
Go here if you want to learn what approach you should use!